Before you read, do remember that I have a minor in statistics and quantitative methods in my doctorate...
I calculated an algorithm today which gives the probability of delivering on any given day around my due date. It is based on a known distribution of birthdates around the due date- including predictive variables like how many babies you have had before, ethnicity, etc. This gives me percentage estimates of delivering on any particular day. So for example, I have a 2.2% absolute chance of delivering today (or cumulative chance of 24.4% of delivering up to and including today). I made pretty graphs and everything. My cumulative chance of delivering exceeds 50% on October 7 which is unsurprising given that George was also 3 days early.
Cool, huh??
3 comments:
Chrissy, I do hope that you print out your graphs and put them in Helen's baby book!
Cool beans! :) I'm glad you've found something fun to do to occupy some of your extra time while you're waiting for Helen to arrive! :)
Obviously there's a flaw in your calculation because she will be born on October 4th, remember?! :)
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